🔗 Share this article

This surely should not continue. The logic defies rational sense for it to persist. Yet, persist it does.

A Record-Chasing Victory Against the Odds

Aston Villa entered the weekend's Premier League clash at Chelsea looking to equal a historic record of eleven consecutive wins, matching runs set in 1897 and 1914. For much of the match, this feat seemed highly unlikely, as Chelsea dominated proceedings, took the lead, and might have added to their advantage. However, Chelsea are frailty when ahead, particularly at home, while Villa have cultivated a remarkable habit of securing wins on the road after falling behind.

First, Ollie Watkins leveled the scores, the ball cannoning in off his leg and the post after his first effort was saved by the goalkeeper. Subsequently, he secured the decisive goal with a precise header. This marked just his fourth and fifth league goals of the season. Watkins might feel some fortune was due, and it's undeniable the equalizing goal had a significant element of good fortune. Currently, however, fortune is favoring Villa.

The Statistics Of an Implausible Streak

The last nine of these 11 straight wins have been by a solitary goal. They have managed a clean sheet in only one of those matches. Their expected goals (xG) have been superior in just six of those encounters, and in a couple of those, the advantage was 0.2 or less. Their last five road Premier League victories have all come after conceding first. This formula seems unsustainable, but pundits have been claiming that for some time, and Villa keep on winning. The central question is whether their outcomes will eventually align with their performances or if their level of play can improve to justify the results.

This seems unsustainable be possible, but everybody's been stating that for weeks and Villa keep on winning.

A Defining Trait: Resilience

Coming from behind is not merely a trait of this season. Over the past three seasons, no side has gained more points from losing positions than Villa's 54; 18 of those have been secured this term, 50% more than the next best team, Sunderland. This season, Villa substitutes have contributed nine goals. Two key points can be made about Villa under their manager.

• First, they possess a profound confidence that means no game ever feels insurmountable. This is, in part, self-perpetuating: the more they achieve comebacks, the more they believe they can do it again.
• Secondly, Emery has proven very adept at influencing games through his use of the bench.

A Masterful Change

While Chelsea had the better of the expected goals 2.1-1.4, Villa were the dominant force from the moment, just before the hour mark, when Emery executed a triple substitution. Ollie Watkins replaced Donyell Malen, who had struggled with limited service. Suddenly, the ball was held up better, and Watkins's movement in behind created issues. Onana and Jadon Sancho also came on, bolstering the center and adding the width they had eschewed earlier.

Chelsea had ten attempts to Villa's zero before the changes; following them, Villa had eleven opportunities to Chelsea's four. By the final whistle, Villa were commanding and could have won more comfortably. Once again, opposing manager Maresca struggled to respond as the game slipped away; the impression remains that he is more proficient at implementing a tactical plan with preparation time than making adjustments on the fly.

Moment of Magic

Villa have cultivated a welcome habit of individuals producing moments of match-winning quality to turn games. Morgan Rogers has scored crucial goals at Leeds, West Ham, and against Manchester United. The sight of him shifting the ball onto his right foot and curling a finish home has become a recurring theme. It was the winger who changed the game from the bench at Leeds. The striker changed the game at Stamford Bridge. The contributions of players such as Konsa and Viktor Lindelof on Saturday were key. At present, it's seldom the entire team playing flawlessly, but sufficient players within it stepping up to earn the victories.

What Comes Next?

Can they keep going? They now sit three points behind the league leaders, and as the season approaches its halfway stage, they have to be viewed as part of the title race, arguably more so than club world champions Chelsea or reigning title holders Liverpool. The upcoming away fixture at Arsenal will be a significant examination of that claim. Villa beat Arsenal earlier this month, a match in which they not only won the xG but registered an xG forty percent higher than any other side has managed against Arsenal in the league this season.

Arsenal have since put together their own run of single-goal victories, winning three in a row without ever being wholly convincing. The upcoming clash will be a challenge for both teams – and if Villa secure a 12th game in a row, it would become almost impossible to dismiss their title credentials.