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For a brief period, Trump seemed to adopt a resolute position regarding Ukraine. After making threats of "severe ramifications" in August in case Putin persisted blocking truce negotiations, he finally introduced substantial sanctions on the Russian biggest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil. This action significantly impacted the Russian leader's ability to fund his war effort in the region.

Yet, through his newly presented 28-point peace plan for Ukraine, which was drafted by American and Russian diplomats excluding Ukraine's or European participation, Trump has apparently reverted to his favorable to Russia stance.

Favoring Invasion

Trump's plan would in practice benefit Putin for attacking a sovereign nation while placing Ukraine's democratic system in peril. Despite strong proclamations that "Ukraine's autonomy will be upheld", significant aspects of the initiative in reality weaken that essential independence. What represents a Russian ideal would certainly be a disaster for Ukraine.

Reflecting his real-estate past, Trump persists to view the war as a mere border issue, like handing Russia a portion of Ukrainian soil will appease the president. However, Putin's military campaign is not merely about controlling a destroyed region of economically weakened area in eastern Ukraine. Rather, it is about Ukraine's political system – and the Russian leader's apparent desire to destroy it so it no longer serves as an enticing model for the Russian people of the responsible leadership that his growing authoritarian rule denies them.

Border Concessions

While maintaining in place the presently separated regions of these areas, the initiative would require Ukraine to surrender all of this eastern territory. Aside from favoring Russia with area that its troops have been unable to occupy in exceeding a lengthy period of fighting, this concession would render Ukrainian defensive positions critically compromised.

Donetsk is the location of Ukraine's much-vaunted "fortress belt", the fortified defensive positions that are a key impediment to Russian advances. Trump would have Ukraine leave these defenses, providing Russian forces a unobstructed path to Kyiv in case he subsequently opt to renew the conflict.

Defense Limitations

Additionally, in a action that would facilitate additional conflict simpler for the Russian military, the plan would force Ukraine to diminish the numbers of its armed forces from their present large number troops to a limit of this lower number. Significantly, Trump's initiative sets no similar constraints on Russia's military.

Apparently as a concession to Russia's attempts to characterize the nation's democratically elected leadership as Nazis, the plan asserts: "All extremist ideology and practices must be opposed and prohibited." Seemingly to highlight this aspect, it requires that "Ukraine will hold democratic votes in this period" of a peace deal. Meanwhile, Trump sets no obligation that the Russian leader endanger his dictatorship by holding elections in his own country.

Protection Guarantees

Certainly, the plan makes the Russian Federation pledge not to "invade bordering nations" and to "incorporate in regulation its policy of non-violence towards Europe and Ukraine". Yet considering that Putin has breached similar accords in the past – such as the Budapest accord, in which the Russian government promised to recognize Ukraine's sovereignty in return for relinquishing its former Soviet nuclear weapons, and the Minsk accords, in which Russia agreed to a halt in fighting and a restoration of captured land in the region to Ukrainian control – how should anyone trust this commitment now?

That is why the Ukrainian government has been so adamant on external security guarantees. While the initiative promises a "decisive coordinated defense action" if Russia renew its invasion, and provides that "The nation will receive strong protection assurances", the particulars vary from unclear to troubling. The plan would not only deny the nation alliance membership but also preclude member states from stationing military personnel on Ukraine's soil, effectively precluding the security presence, likely led by Britain and France, on which the Ukrainian government had been depending to stop Putin from restoring his diminished troops, rearming, and resuming aggression.

International Reaction

Another parallel deal apparently would provide the nation with a alliance-like security guarantee, in which any subsequent "significant, intentional, and continuous armed attack" by the Russian Federation on Ukraine "will be treated as an act of war endangering the tranquility of the Western nations." That suggests a armed reaction. Yet unlike a capable Ukraine's armed forces – the nation's best defense against additional hostilities – the credibility of the supplementary deal would hinge on the commitment of Nato leaders, including the US administration, to act militarily to Putin's attacks, a response they have {not