A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the country and unleashed disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in academia but scarcely any politicians or activists want to engage with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two essays that strive for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has possesses something to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should join the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
